Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Currently... https://www.whereisroadster.com/

Eventually: The random walk of cars and their collision probabilities with planets

Quote

We perform N-body simulations to determine the fate of the object over the next 15 Myr. The orbital evolution is initially dominated by close encounters with the Earth. While a precise orbit can not be predicted beyond the next several centuries due to these repeated chaotic scatterings, one can reliably predict the long-term outcomes by statistically analyzing a large suite of possible trajectories with slightly perturbed initial conditions. Repeated gravitational scatterings with Earth lead to a random walk. Collisions with the Earth, Venus and the Sun represent primary sinks for the Roadster's orbital evolution. Collisions with Mercury and Mars, or ejections from the Solar System by Jupiter, are highly unlikely. We calculate a dynamical half-life of the Tesla of approximately 15 Myr, with some 22%, 12% and 12% of Roadster orbit realizations impacting the Earth, Venus, and the Sun within one half-life, respectively. Because the eccentricities and inclinations in our ensemble increase over time due to mean-motion and secular resonances, the impact rates with the terrestrial planets decrease beyond a few million years, whereas the impact rate on the Sun remains roughly constant.

 

And here's an Ars Technica article on efforts to track and predict the location of Starman and his roadster.

Edited by efaardvark
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Similar Content

    • By Nekomata_Shoji
      I wrote my own "Light Novel" after all these years! A Slice of Life filled with comedy, excitement, and fluff! 😃
      Hey everyone! I'm new here, but I wanted to let you all know about the story I've been working on for the past couple of months!
      I started reading manga/light novels and watching anime when I was still around 6 years old, believe it or not, I am born to be an otaku. 
      Reading the manga/light novel became a part of me until now, and I am overly excited every time they announced an anime adaptation for the manga/light novel. Because seeing the characters moving and interacting is just amazing for me.
       

      webnovel link: https://www.webnovel.com/book/i-never-thought-i-made-a-harem-by-making-a-manga_18080645005182205
      My novel, "I never thought I made a harem while making a manga." currently available for free in webnovel, is a slice of life and a romantic comedy story about a generic dense MC named Kenji Yoshikawa who only is a high school student lacking in ambitions and dreams, seeking to live a simple life. His unusual family background doesn't allow him to live his life in the shadows, in order to uncover the secrets behind his family. He started a mangaka club with his childhood best friend Yasuyuki Okamura and a mysterious girl Fumi Sugawara then sudden events unfolded.
      I hope that you guys can enjoy reading my humble little story! The first volume is out and the next volumes will be out soon. I'll do my best to keep writing more! 
      You are open to share your thoughts, fellow readers!
      ATTENTION: 
      There will be updates soon! but please continue supporting my story. 

      Cover art: Temporary, updating.
      Story: Needs fixations.
      Next update: Volume 2 will be released soon.
    • By Tudor-san
      Heyo !
      I'm pretty new around here, but I was curious if you ever wanted to make a game or at least design one or two characters. Maybe share some of your ideas ?

    • By Ukato Emina
      Hi everybody,
      I want to share with a good and nice game, let's all of of us share our ideas so we all be happy and all can have different ideas for new event in the finale of this year. As we all know that a 2021 is a new year that we come after this months.
      So in this a thread do you have plans for days between 25th December until 30th December. For me, it is my 21 in my life for this event so I want to do so much things that I will not forget but first by sharing and watching most of this series along with my love. 
      We will do stupid things like , I will start and be happy start and begin with wearing a very lovely skirt new year dress such as in this picture:- 


      Then sharing my happy for this event with my friends and lovely closely friends for sure:-

      And like I said in the end, watching one of more of this anime series: -
       
    • By efaardvark
      Ok, so not a lot of astrophysics or science in this one but I thought it was cool nevertheless...
       
    • By Selkies
      Hello all, 
      Here's a general discussion on who you think is the best/fav Akatsuki memeber.
      Kisame is mine. Its really too bad Samehada likes octopus though...
       
×
×
  • Create New...