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Showing content with the highest reputation since 05/07/2024 in Posts

  1. At any given time there's an extremely low probability of any damage from one. If they're big enough then they can certainly cause huge amounts of damage but the last really big one to hit the Earth was back in 1859 and was called the Carrington event. We've seen quite a few of these types of CME's thrown off by the sun that have missed the Earth so we know they exist and we've studied them enough to have quantified their properties so we know what they're capable of. Fortunately the bigger they are the less common they are and nothing that big has hit the Earth in modern times. We'd also have a bit of warning. Spacecraft like SOHO, ACE, and STEREO (and the upcoming SWFO) are designed for this. They're the ones that are currently (or will be, in the case of SWFO) feeding the data to the NOAA "space weather" site. Maybe we'd only get a few hours or a couple days notice, but that's enough time to shut down and disconnect important bits of infrastructure in an orderly manner. That said, in my own lifetime I remember in 1989 there was a big power outage in Canada caused by a large CME. It wasn't nearly as powerful as the Carrington event but it was still very disruptive to power and communications even back then. This was before things like the internet and smartphones and AWS. I can only imagine what it would be like today. We still haven't implemented a lot of the lessons learned from back then in today's infrastructure either. A physics textbook will tell you that changes in magnetic fields can effect changes in electric currents in wires, and vice versa. Things like motors in electric vehicles and generators in hydroelectric plants are possible because of this. In a motor or generator the wire carrying the electric current is all wound up in a compact coil, and the coil is shielded by the structure of the device, which generally only lets the electrical field interact with magnetic fields also within the device. But a straight wire is also subject to the same physics. If you have a long wire in a fluctuating magnetic field then the field can create an electrical current in the wire. The magnitude of the electrical current is directly related to the length of the wire and the rate of change in the magnetic field. There are many instances of very long wires exposed to the geomagnetic field in the modern world. A power transmission line or a phone line are a couple of examples. They are electrically insulated against things like short circuits but they're not shielded from magnetic fields and these wires are embedded in the earth's magnetic field along with everything else on earth. Normally this is not a cause for concern because the Earth's magnetic field is pretty stable. The Earth's magnetic field usually doesn't change much, or at least not quickly, so any effect from the geomagnetic field is normally manageable. That can change if a CME hits the Earth's magnetic field. The main cause of damage from CMEs is secondary effects from the huge, rapid fluctuations in the magnetic field caused by the charged particles when they hit the Earth's magnetosphere. This affects a large geographic area. When the magnetic field lines surrounding a power or communications cable that is hundreds or thousands of miles long start to change rapidly it can generate huge electrical currents in the cable. The ends of these cables will be connected to things like power plants, homes and offices, and communications centers. These currents would be far more than the equipment is designed to withstand and might go on for minutes or hours. In severe cases the induced currents can generate more power than the wires themselves can handle, in which case the wires will overheat, melting insulation and/or the metal wires themselves, and causing short circuits and fires. This last is what happened in 1859. Hundreds of miles of telegraph wires laid out between cities across the world channeled large electrical currents into the equipment at telegraph offices. Batteries overloaded and exploded, wires overheated, electrical arcs injured people and started fires, etc. Generally the damage was limited however. This was long before computers and even household electricity. Electric lightbulbs didn't even exist until the 1870s, and most homes weren't wired for electricity until the early 1900s. There just wasn't that much infrastructure around to be affected, electrically speaking. In today's high-tech world I think there is far more potential for damage, and the damage would be far more expensive and it would take much longer to repair or replace it all. If a Carrington-level CME hit the Earth these days it would immediately cause widespread power outages as circuit breakers tripped. Some circuit breakers would not be fast enough however, in which case the equipment power lines are connected to would be damaged and would have to be replaced before service could be resumed. Electrical arcs could damage or destroy nearby equipment as well. Things like datacenters would also be very vulnerable. They're connected to the power grid like everything else of course. They're also typically at the hub of a web of long-distance communications wires and the communication equipment is used to dealing with well-behaved low-voltage communications signals, not megawatts of unmanaged power coming down those wires at them. Satellites would also be affected. Communications systems that are used to dealing with faint data transmissions would likely be damaged or destroyed by induced electrical surges far beyond what they'd been designed for. Satellites in space would also be directly affected by the radiation of the CME. That radiation can penetrate to the computer chips and do things like scramble memory and disrupt the programs that are controlling the spacecraft. The other, and I think bigger problem with a Carrington-level CME event would be the sheer scale of the damage to the electrical, computing, and communications infrastructure. It's bad enough if one power plant or a particular datacenter goes down even temporarily. This would likely be a big event, geographically speaking. Bigger by far than something like an earthquake or a hurricane/typhoon. A large number of power plants, transmission lines, communications hubs, and data centers worldwide would be damaged and taken offline within minutes or hours of each other. A lot of the damaged or destroyed equipment would likely be very expensive and the inventory available for immediate replacement thereof would be limited. There are some high voltage, long distance power transmission transformers that would probably be vulnerable for instance but they're very expensive, they take months to build, and there's only a few dozen of them in use in the whole US. How big is the replacement inventory for that sort of thing? How many replacement GPS satellites could be quickly launched, especially if half the world's long distance power lines were down, along with the power plants and communications centers they'd been connected to? How long will it take to rebuild all the datacenters when most of the destroyed equipment will not be available from existing stock in warehouses and will have to be manufactured anew? Will the factories even be able to function to produce the replacement equipment? Some level of basic service could probably be restored relatively quickly, but rebuilding all of it could easily take months or even years. Some level of chaos would also be a quite likely outcome, and there's the question of if our bozo "leaders" in government would be able to effectively manage that chaos and the recovery efforts without creating even more problems.
    3 points
  2. Is anyone going out to see the Northern Lights tonight? They are visible in quiet a few places both tonight and last night. I believe last night there was a higher chance of seeing them but they have upgraded the chance of seeing them tonight to as likely as last night. I read people were able to see them as far as the Bahamas last night. Tonight's forecast is showing most places in Canada and the upper parts of the U.S. Per one of the meteorologist though: "The Northern Lights will be visible again tonight with the same Kp index of 9 just like last night. Last night's G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storm Watch was upgraded to a G5 (Extreme). A G5 Geomagnetic Storm Watch has been issued for tonight as well." He also goes on to say the best time to view will be between sunset - 11 PM EST. So is anyone going out to try to see them, or did go out last night? I have seen reports of them being seen all over Sweden/Denmark/The UK/ lower U.S regions and down to the Bahamas so there might be a good chance for a lot of people to see them! ~ I'm personally going out with some friends around 10 PM outside of the city away from the lights to see if we are able to see anything since it's on my bucket list to see the Northern Lights. I like in Chicago so it's likely I might be able to catch a glimpse of them. Going to try anyway!
    2 points
  3. I went with Sakura to see them last night. We went farther North in Illinois in the country away from lights of the city and was able to see this well enough. Although this is not a new thing for me as I grew up in Northern Finland we see this all the time and sometimes very bright where it is all the way across the sky in many different colors. Seeing it made me feel slightly homesick for Finland.
    2 points
  4. I saw that! *3* X-class flares! One was a 5.8! Several smaller as well. Nothing Carrington level but there ought to be some good aurora displays not just tonight but all through the weekend and even into next week. The sunspot activity that has been causing them will have moved to the other side of the sun after that but there could even be a repeat when it comes back around. Unfortunately I'm in Southern California - and in a highly light-polluted urban area besides - so I'm unlikely to be able to see anything interesting. I told my brother in Wisconsin though. Last time he got some good pictures.
    2 points
  5. I haven't had migraines lately. I did have a headache but it went away pretty quickly. I just feel tired today with everything I am doing this week.
    2 points
  6. I restarted Front Mission 1st and started Shining Resonance Refrain's original story before I try the Refrain story.
    2 points
  7. I am feeling pretty good today. I have a day off and I am going out biking by the lake and play some games today.
    2 points
  8. Ah oki agree with that statement but throw boiling water on you if you had a crush on me anyways ~
    2 points
  9. The postman delivered my latest acquisition this morning. My Place Further Than the Universe Blu-ray collector's edition box set. As well as the complete series on two Blu-ray disks it also came with two soundtrack CDs, a set of four postcards, a poster and a booklet. So, no prizes for guessing what I'm going to start watching tomorrow.
    2 points
  10. I was playing FIFA earlier. I had to stop before I broke the remote. That will be enough of that for the week.
    2 points
  11. Smack the both of you for being crazy and then move countries to get away ~
    2 points
  12. I'm slowly making my way through the Xiangzhou storyline in HSR. I dropped $80 for Robin. Also I have an E2 Gepard just cuz I guess. Eventually I'll catch-up to where everyone else is in the story. I assume after Xiangzhou is Penacony based on my Youtube feed.
    1 point
  13. When I return to visit family you can visit with me. This is very good to know there would be enough warning to be able to shut down what would be needed to in order to prevent a lot of damage to happen. Anywhere in any country I don't think leaders would have it together enough to effectively manage and handle an event on that level properly and it is concerning to know they are not really prepared to do it. If food and water was available I think it would stop a lot of chaos from happening and perhaps be something similar to what I read of the 2003 Northeast blackout in America.
    1 point
  14. Cloudy and it should rain later this evening. It's very windy right now.
    1 point
  15. I once tried the UIM for a little around a week and didn't enjoy it. I have tried plain Iron Man too and didn't feel it was challenging or interesting enough. The Hardcore I thought might be some challenge. I also think it would be fun to try the group Ironman if you and I and some friends made a group Ironman accounts.
    1 point
  16. There is probably a lot of things that are considered animal abuse that weren't back then lol Things are a lot different but I also think it's good there are animal rights groups advocating for animals these days.. at least the ones that don't get too carried away and weird about it.
    1 point
  17. 1 point
  18. I heard you could see them tonight too but I was looking at the Aurora forecast and it doesn't look like we would be able to see them well here so I probably won't try again. We did get to see them last night though and it was really cool! We had to drive pretty far out away from the city though, about 45 minutes outside of Chicago up further North to the middle of nowhere lol. Worth it though. When is that supposed to come back around and be visible again? Ya I would really like to go to where you are from and see them ~ the pictures I have seen from there are so amazing.
    1 point
  19. I feel like starting a new character in Hardcore Ironman mode on Runescape lately... but to invest the time I don't know if I want to
    1 point
  20. Rescue her from some subway tracks after she falls in them
    1 point
  21. This morning I played some Cult of the Lamb I had forgot about that I was playing it and a lot of my cult members were dead and the village was all messed up
    1 point
  22. I just realized... I knew I'd seen Tinasha somewhere before. She's Yumiella a few hundred years later.
    1 point
  23. Watched the first 4 episodes of Astro Note & found it surprisingly enjoyable. The oddball cast of characters remind me of Rumiko Takahashi’s old-school romcoms. I find it particularly funny that the alien poodle has the same voice as Sukuna (JJK) And then there’s the dad who always wears a suit despite being unemployed & the violent idol singer wannabe
    1 point
  24. What are your favorite myths and legends? https://bettermyths.com/387-2/#link-for-aesops-fable I always liked the Devil and the Tinker. A guy gets granted three wished, outsmarts the devil, pisses off god, tricks death multiple times, and ends up becoming immortal.
    1 point
  25. Some demons from the book of Zeref.
    1 point
  26. Personally i wonder if King Arthur might be connected to the story of Japan's Kusanagi ("grass cutter") sword, retrieved from the eight headed dragon. It supposedly disappeared into the sea roughly the same time Arthur pulled the sword from the stone and a Japanese dragon would have made a great Lady in the Lake. https://bettermyths.com/387-2/#link-for-arthurian You should look up "Deer woman" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deer_Woman Most people do not know how he turned his daughter back to flesh.
    1 point
  27. dropped 46-17 in modern warfare 3 domination
    1 point
  28. Please do not The books of Zeref ~
    1 point
  29. Rin Tohsaka Mikasa Ackerman Motoko Kusanagi Erza Scarlet
    1 point
  30. Simply give them flowers and chocolate.
    1 point
  31. Squirrels. I get quite a few visiting my garden and it's great fun watching their antics. Every so often a new one comes along and it never fails to amuse me watching them learn the hard way that my bird feeders are totally squirrel proof. The regulars don't even look at the bird feeders, squirrels are smart, squirrels learn.
    1 point
  32. Squirrels Since mongoose & ferrets apparently aren’t rodents
    1 point
  33. My favorite legend of myth surrounding a person was about King Midas from Greek mythology who was said to be able to turn everything he touched into gold. About places I always became fascinated with the legend of Atlantis. A lot of scientist today don't think Atlantis was real or ever existed but still there is a lot of search for the city that sank into the ocean. I also read a lot about a similar place called El Dorado which is said to be a city of gold somewhere in South America in the rainforests.
    1 point
  34. I like reading about the mythical monsters and creatures that supposedly lurk around such as Moth Man, The Jersey Devil, Bigfoot/skunk apes, the White River monster, Kentucky goblins, Beast of Bray Road, Loch Ness, La Lhorona, and not mention all the Japanese lore of the various Yokai. My favorite though are Wendigo & Skinwalkers. Both of which scare the hell out of me but I still find them interesting. I went down a rabbit hole of learning a lot of both and watching a bunch of videos late at night about them several times Oh there is also something called a "Not Deer" which is sort of like a Wendigo I guess but a little different and that creeps me out but it's very interesting. There isn't much information about the Not-Deer though. I guess all my favorite myths/legends are more to do with creepy creatures and beasts though that are rumored to be in certain areas and have a lot of local town lore behind them.
    1 point
  35. I didn't know Barbie had a lesbian princess movie
    1 point
  36. This was the old 60s version from before color was invented*. As a kid I watched TZ and Outer Limits all the time. The first season of OL was kinda cheezy but after that the writing, directing, and acting all got better, though mostly it was still unknowns on the writing and acting side. Even now it's fun to go back and see the works of some actors and writers (especially for Outer Limits) before they became big names. Captain Kirk before he became Captain Kirk for instance, or Harlan Ellison or Clifford Simak on the writing side. (* And yes, everything before the 70s was monochrome. Things like sunsets and rainbows were a lot less interesting back then. )
    1 point
  37. I'm thinking about doing that ~ getting Herblore/Firemaking/Smithing & Woodcutting all to 98 and then getting 99 in all of them all at once because it would be cool to do that but I don't know if I have the patience to hold out in getting 99 when it's like 500 XP to it ;-;
    1 point
  38. Set him on fire or set myself on fire I'm not sure
    1 point
  39. Now Twilight Zone I have heard of/seen But only a few episodes and I don't know this cookbook episode but I'm curious now ~
    1 point
  40. I've had a migraine since this morning and been struggling with that. I came home and just got straight into bed after classes and just woke up. I feel a little better to the point where the pounding in my head is manageable and not causing me blinding pain anymore but I'm about to go right back to bed after I eat.
    1 point
  41. That is so true lol since becoming an adult I just constantly find myself looking to relive the nostalgia of being a teenager But I still act like a kid and you are only as old as you feel I guess ~
    1 point
  42. I feel okay recently. Being on vacation has helped me think about a lot of things I needed to think about in life.
    1 point
  43. Kinda tired I think I might go to bed early tonight.
    1 point
  44. Is there anything you are really afraid of such as spiders, dogs, even chickens? (I actually saw a show once where someone had a huge phobia of chickens). Would you consider the fear so bad that it would be a phobia, such as just the sight of it scares you? I personally have a huge phobia of needles to the point that even getting a blood test makes me want to faint lol I've never been able to actually get over it either. What about fear of dying? Such as, in what way are you most scared to die? For me I think it would be drowning is my biggest fear when it comes to ways to die, even though I can think of much worse, it seems the most likely that could happen.
    1 point
  45. It's snowing and getting as low as 22F/-5C today!
    1 point
  46. It's been kinda chilly, in the 50s most of the day.
    1 point
  47. "I am not afraid of storms, for I am learning how to sail my ship" - Louise May Alcott "Tough times never last, tough people do" - Robert Schuller
    1 point
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